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    关于举办“2018年度经管学术论坛系列报告会(四)”的通知

    上传时间:  2018-04-03      浏览次数:  

      气候变化跨尺度集成与分类学小型研讨会(共六场,每场汇报20分钟,评论20分钟)。

      地点: 经管园林大楼C301会议室 

      主持人:淮建军  教授

      (1)Title: Review of cross-scale integration and climate change vulnerability typology

      报告人: 淮建军  教授

      Time: 14:00-14:30 pm, April 4, 2018(周三)

      Abstract: Integrated social, economic and ecological systems are complexly affected by climate change. Household climate vulnerability varies across space and time, influenced by cross-scale multi-level and multi-dimensional factors. Adaptation to climate change takes diverse forms, with some households negatively adapting, thus increasing their vulnerability. This paper reviews the current state of climate change vulnerability scholarship and finds that cross-scale, multi-dimensional research and analysis are lacking and that working typologies of vulnerability have thus far not been developed. We recommend that, in order for vulnerability scholarship to adequately contribute to holistic and workable adaptive capacity policies, future research must address the heterogeneity of household vulnerability and adaptive practices, integrate the multiple contributing scales and dimensions into vulnerability theory and develop typologies of vulnerability that are workable across scales and dimensions. These integrated approaches will not only advance vulnerability research, but will allow social science scholarship to more effectively contribute to adaptation policy-making and management practices. 

      Key words: Climate change; Vulnerability; Cross-scale; Integration and Typology; Household livelihood

      (2)Title: 互补替代下苹果脆弱性影响因素空间计量分析

      报告人: 吴晓萍 研究生

      时间: 14:50-15:20 pm, April 4, 2018(周三) 

      摘要:为了测量互补和替代指标对苹果脆弱性的影响,本研究选择陕西苹果主产县2015年的截面数据,用逐步回归的方法识别资本指标之间的互补和替代关系,然后用空间滞后模型分析互补和替代指标对苹果脆弱性的影响。结果表明:在空间相关性的约束下,邻近县的苹果脆弱性正向影响目标县的脆弱性;互补指标中的苹果有效灌溉面积和农村人均可支配收入对脆弱性产生正向影响,农村耐用消费品指数负向影响脆弱性;替代指标没有对脆弱性产生影响。结论:在制定应对气候变化的适应政策时,不仅要考虑资本间的互补和替代关系,而且要考虑空间相关性;互补的指标不一定会降低脆弱性,在制定应对气候变化的适应政策时不能盲目增加互补的生计资本去降低脆弱性,要根据资本对脆弱性的作用大小适宜地增加生计资本。

      (3)Title: 价格波动对气候变化影响区域社会经济脆弱性的中介效应 

      报告人: 刘鹏伟 研究生

      时间: 15:50-16:10 pm, April 4, 2018(周三) 

      摘要:本文以黄土高原苹果主产区为例,基于“来源-路径-受体-结果”(SPRC)模型,选择县级尺度气候变化的客观事实和农户尺度气候变化主观感知,利用Bootstrap方法研究了价格波动在气候变化影响社会经济脆弱性过程的中介效应。结果表明:由于农户个体和区域的异质性,在脆弱性敏感区和耐受区,价格波动的中介效应存在异质性。在实际气候变化影响敏感区社会经济脆弱性的过程价格波动的中介效应存在,而在耐受区不存在;在感知气候变化影响影响敏感区社会经济脆弱性的过程价格波动的中介效应不存在,而在耐受区存在。考虑了价格波动的中介效应后,将农户的主观感知与客观环境联系起来,减少了感知偏差。最后,中介效应有效地区分了气候变化的直接影响和间接影响,避免了气候变化对黄土高原苹果主产区社会经济的实际影响被低估的问题。

      (4)Title: 干旱影响生计脆弱性中的中介和调节效应

      报告人: 苏美蕊 研究生

      时间: 16:30-16:50 pm, April 4, 2018(周三) 

      提 要:在气候变化下跨尺度变量的定性研究很多,但实证研究非常少。基于黄土高原218个农户调查数据,采用线性回归和层次回归分析跨尺度变量在干旱影响生计脆弱性中的中介和调节效应。研究结果表明:干旱对农户生计脆弱性有显著影响。在干旱影响生计脆弱性的过程中,个人尺度的“户主年龄、感知的气温最大值、降雨量变化、干旱程度变化和灾后信息渠道”与农户尺度的“批发市场距离和集市距离”起到了调节作用;农户尺度的“三代直系亲属的户数和生产机械指数”起到了中介作用;而村庄尺度的“工程措施”,既没起到中介作用,也没起到调节作用。本文用中介和调节效应反映了跨尺度变量的交互作用,在跨尺度效应的实证研究方面提供了科学的方法,弥补了现有研究的空白,这为制定减少农户生计脆弱性的政策提供了科学有效的依据。

      关键词:干旱;生计脆弱性;中介效应;调节效应

      (5)Title: Priority of classifying heterogeneous farmers’ perceived vulnerability and livelihood capital: A case of the Loess Plateau, China

      报告人:淮建军 教授

      Time: 17:10-17:30 pm, April 4, 2018(周三)

      Abstract: Confusion often surrounds objective and subjective vulnerability because vulnerability assessments typically ignore personal perception, which can affect adaptive behavior. To address this confusion, we tested whether livelihood capital indicators reduced perceived vulnerability among farmers on the Loess Plateau, China’s primary apple producing region, through our further classifications, a Kruskal-Wallis test and step-wise multivariate weight regression. Our 2015 survey classified the 295 respondents by their perceptions on temperature and crop yield as positive-resilient, positive-sensitive, negative-resilient, or negative-sensitive. We found compelling evidence indicating that across all farmer groups, few livelihood capital indicators were associated with perceived relative and perceived absolute vulnerability; instead, our classifications based on farmers’ perceptions on temperature and crop yield were strongly associated with perceived vulnerability; the relationship between perceived absolute and relative vulnerability varied among the four groups of farmers. We concluded that priority of classifying heterogeneous farmers’ perceived vulnerability is the key for regions and countries where climate change caused too much negative influence on the agriculture and society. Our approach appears to be an effective mechanism for classifying perceived vulnerability among farmers.

      Keywords: climate change; perceived vulnerability; livelihood capital; priority; classification;  China

      (6)Title: Interactive policy adaptation in heterogeneous families: A cross-generational case study of three families responding to the retrieval of rural homesteads in China, 1949-2017

      报告人: 淮建军 教授

      Time: 17:50-18:10 pm, April 4, 2018(周三) 

      Abstract:Although many theories of sustainable livelihoods are used to assess the impacts of policy, there is much less literature that focuses on the science-policy-action gap. Based on interviews with four-generations of three families at Y and W villages near Fufeng City, Shaanxi Province, Western China, we address this using a multiple case, four-generational analysis to examine how families adapt to the retrieval of rural homesteads in China. Supplemented by the sustainable livelihood framework and adaptive cycle theory, we develop a model of interactive family adaptation gearing to the reorganization of homestead policy. The results show that there are different case-specific adaptive mechanisms for the dominant, subordinate, and other families, and a generic adaptive mechanism includes eleven routes from policy to family, family to policy, within the family and between families. Contrary to the usual adaptive cycles, interactive family adaptive gearing focuses on the interaction between different families and the contentious policy. We found that an interactive family adaptation to policy implementation can reduce the science-policy-action gap in developing countries, like China, where the influence of Confucianism and the patriarchal clan system are rooted in people’s consciousness and the household system is considered as a source of tradition and the foundation of a unique Eastern path of rural development.

      报告人简介:淮建军,西北农林科技大学经济管理学院教授,西北农林科技大学“双一流学科群”成员。他本科、硕士先后毕业于西北大学经济学专业,之后在西安交通大学大学获得管理科学与工程博士学位。研究领域主要涉及气候变化脆弱性评价与适应性管理,碳汇交易机制以及跨尺度集成与分类学,农林经济管理,六次产业等。他的研究成果已经发表于相关研究领域的重要期刊,比如PLoS ONE, Scientific Report, Global environmental change等。吴晓萍、苏美蕊,刘鹏伟为淮建军教授的硕士研究生。

      特约评论:经济管理学院院长赵敏娟教授

      特约评论:水土保持研究所上官周平教授

      特约评论:研究生院常务副院长霍学喜教授

      特约评论:水利与建筑工程学院金继明教授

      特约评论:水利与建筑工程学院王玉宝教授

      欢迎相关专业教师和研究生积极参加。

    经济管理学院

    2018年4月3日